Harley-Davidson Q1 2025 exceeds expectations - dealers in a tight spot

Harley-Davidson presented solid quarterly figures on May 1, 2025. Earnings per share amounted to 1.07 USD, well above the analysts' consensus (USD 0.97). Sales also fell to USD 1.33 billion better than expected - despite a decline of 23 % compared to the previous year.

Nevertheless, the mood in many areas of the Harley world is tense: 33 % fewer motorcycles delivered, The fact that the number of units sold in stores fell by 21 % and that there was a significant decline in key regions shows that there is a lot going on beneath the surface.

Share price on 30.04.2025: 23.16 USD (-1.19 %)

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) shares are currently trading at $23.16, down $0.28 (-1.19 %) from the previous close. The stock traded between USD 22.95 and USD 23.50 intraday.

Analyst expectations for Q1 2025

• Earnings per share (EPS): The current consensus is USD 0.97, with estimates ranging from USD 0.75 to USD 1.22 .
• Turnover: On average, analysts expect sales of USD 1.11 billion, which corresponds to a decline of around USD 36 % compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Outlook for the full year 2025

• EPS forecast: The average estimate is USD 3.45 per share, with a range of USD 2.96 to USD 3.96 .
• Sales forecast: The expected total revenue amounts to around USD 4.14 billion, compared to USD 5.19 billion in the previous year

Analysts point out that Harley-Davidson is facing challenges such as a declining motorcycle market, high interest rates and weak consumer demand. Motorcycle sales in the USA fell by 20.7 % in February 2025 compared to the previous year. 

Share price performance

Following the publication of the quarterly figures, Harley-Davidson's share price rose by around 5 % to USD 23.53.

Key financial figures Q1 2025

• TurnoverUSD 1.33 billion, a decrease of USD 23 % compared to the previous year, but above the expected USD 1.11 billion.
• Earnings per share (EPS)USD 1.07, which exceeds analysts' expectations of USD 0.81.
• Net profitUSD 133.1 million, a decrease of USD 43 % compared to the previous year.
• Operating resultUSD 160 million, a decrease of USD 39 % compared to the previous year.

Business development

• Motorcycle sales worldwide: decrease of 21 % compared to the previous year.
• Motorcycle deliveries: decrease of 33 % compared to the previous year.

Regional sales figures:

• North America: -24 %
• EMEA: -2 %
• Asia-Pacific: -28 %
• Latin America: -6 %

Segment analysis: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)

• Touring models remain strong with ~61 % market share, but significantly below the previous year (-33 %).
• Cruiser are losing strongly - only 11,860 units (-24 %).
• Sport/Lightweight & Adventure touring are still niches.
• Apparel & Accessories fall by double digits (-14 % and -11 % respectively) - a warning signal for the stationary dealer network.
• US market: Particularly affected - Retail sales -25.3 %.

Comment: The decline in deliveries was partly to be expected: (keyword: supply chains and dealer stocks), but the slump in demand is also real. From your experience with the scene, this is congruent: many interested parties are hesitating, waiting or jumping ship altogether - high interest rates, inflationary pressure, discussions about punitive tariffs, political uncertainty.

The declining sales figures at Harley-Davidson are part of a global trend in the motorcycle industry. Economic uncertainties, rising costs and changing consumer behavior are contributing to this development. Manufacturers are responding with strategic adjustments to meet the challenges of the market.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)

• Reason: fewer provisions for loan defaults and lower operating costs.
• Sales stable (-2 %), but operating income +19 %.
• HDFS generated an operating profit of USD 64 million in Q1 2025.

Harley-Davidson is currently examining the sale of its finance division HDFS for around one billion US dollars. The potential separation is causing debate. While investors could see the move as a focus on the core business, retailers are warning of the loss of an important management tool for customer loyalty and financing.

Remarkable: HDFS regularly generates higher operating profits than the entire parts, apparel and licensing business - with significantly lower sales. It is still unclear whether the sale will go ahead - but the strategic implications should not be underestimated.

LiveWire

• Sales slumped: Only 33 e-motorcycles (Q1 2024: 117).
• Sales -42 %, but losses reduced (from USD -29m to USD -20m).

Comment: LiveWire is (still) a risky object that costs fantasy for the future - but does not currently generate any traction. For urban areas you need a completely different buyer profile - at the moment it remains a prestige project with potential but no traction.

Outlook and measures

• Withdrawal of the annual forecast: Due to economic uncertainties and possible effects of tariffs, Harley-Davidson has withdrawn its forecast for the 2025 financial year.
• Cost-cutting measuresThe company plans to cut costs, optimize the supply chain and reduce dealer inventories.
• Share buybacksShares worth USD 87 million were bought back in the first quarter.

Regions at a glance

• Europe (EMEA)

Only 2 % Decrease in retail sales - a respectable success. In Germany in particular, long-established dealer networks are showing what they can do. Despite the difficult economic situation, rising costs and declining consumer confidence, they are maintaining the brand's presence.

• Asia-Pacific (APAC)

In Asia, on the other hand, the challenges are much greater. The decline in retail sales by 28 % in the first quarter of 2025 is primarily attributable to weak demand in the China and Japan to this. At the same time, the Asian market is currently a particular strategic focus: According to previous information, it is right at the top of the company's agenda, just behind the US market.

Break-in at 28 % - especially in China and Japan. The Harley myth hardly works here anymore, and Harley-Davidson wants to actively counteract this.

Zeitz focuses on reduction and control

CEO Jochen Zeitz once again clarified the strategy:

• Fewer deliveries
• Cost control and inventory reduction
• Share buybacks (USD 87 million in Q1)
• Increased marketing activities

He emphasized that 60 % of potential customers currently refrain from buying, mainly due to high interest rates and general uncertainty.

Strategic realignment and change of management

Harley-Davidson is in the midst of a strategic upheaval. CEO Jochen Zeitz has announced his resignation and the company is currently looking for a successor. This change is taking place against the backdrop of demands from major investor H Partners, which is calling for three new board positions to be filled in order to make the company fit for the future. 

At the same time, Harley-Davidson is pursuing „The Hardwire“ strategy with the aim of focusing on profitable segments such as touring, cruisers and trikes. In Asia, the company is increasingly focusing on smaller models and local partnerships in order to tap into new customer groups.

With the announced change in management, it is to be hoped that the new CEO will focus more strongly on the dealer base. They are not only sales partners, but also local brand owners - with direct contact to customers, a feel for the market and a willingness to invest.

Especially in economically difficult times, there is no need for further cuts, but rather a clear commitment to the dealer partnership. If you want to keep Harley visible on the road, you have to strengthen the people who are there.

Retailers as the backbone - and victims of the cost-cutting strategy

While the head office is concentrating on balance sheet optimization, many are struggling with a different problem: Rising operating costs, High energy costs, increased wages and Investment pressure meet Declining margins and Growing specifications from Milwaukee.

A weakened dealer network not only means fewer sales - it also jeopardizes Harley's most important strength, namely the short distances to the customer and its physical presence in the scene.

A dealership that manages the showroom, events, workshop, advice, social media and test drives, needs room to maneuver - economically and strategically. However, if margins continue to shrink and accessory sales are increasingly handled centrally, there will be no room for investment.

Harley-Davidson relies heavily on presence - be it through central marketing campaigns or major events. But precisely where the brand could actually shine, it is becoming increasingly quiet. Fewer and fewer dealers are prepared to take on the financial and personnel costs for such appearances.

The reasons for this are manifold - from rising toll and CO₂ costs to more expensive hotel prices and logistical effort to the lack of staff, who not only have to be available but also motivated.

What used to be a matter of course - going on tour with bikes and a stand - is now becoming a business consideration. This is exactly where the seriousness of the situation becomes apparent. If Harley is hardly represented by dealers at its own events, the brand loses contact with the people it was made for.

The reality!

If you run a Harley store today, you don't just have to sell - you have to Explain, stage and create trust. All this costs money. And if the dealer network is further weakened, Harley-Davidson will not only lose sales points, but above all access to the road.

Why presence at events remains important - even without direct sales

1. Brand experience creates loyalty

According to a study by EventTrack (USA), 85 % of visitors say that Live brand experiences positively influence their opinion of a brand - even if they don't buy anything on site. Presence creates trust, familiarity and proximity. Especially with high-priced, emotional products such as motorcycles, the experience counts.

2.  Personal contact is no substitute for a screen

Direct interaction with real people - i.e. dealers, mechanics, consultants - is crucial for many potential buyers. Anyone who can ask questions at events, sit on a bike or simply have a good conversation has a completely different relationship with the brand.

3.  Long-term sales come from recognizability

Even if there is no spontaneous purchase, the brand remains emotionally anchored. Later - online, in the store or at the retailer - the decision is more likely to be made in favor of the brand that you want. experienced has.

4.  Events strengthen the community

Harley is more than a product - it is a culture. And culture is created through encounters. Anyone who withdraws from the scene is weakening the very thing that has made Harley great for decades.

5.  Presence protects market share

When Harley dealers are absent, other brands are often there - Indian, BMW, Triumph. Any omitted presence is a wasted customer contact, which may end directly with the competitor.

Comment: Even if no direct sales are made at events, the Proven long-term return on investment through visibility, loyalty and buying impulse. Studies from the retail and automotive sectors show that Event contacts can generate up to 3 times higher conversion value in the follow-up, compared to pure online advertising.

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Pressure from outside - investors demand changes

The financial world is no longer silent either: Larger shareholders demand changes to the Management Board. The strategy of compensating for declining sales through profitability is increasingly being criticized. The lack of a clear outlook (which has been withdrawn) is particularly unsettling.

The concern: Harley-Davidson is becoming a company that delivers figures - but in doing so loses brand loyalty, market share and future viability in the long term.

Final assessment

Harley-Davidson delivered in the first quarter - at least on paper. But things look different on the road. Especially in Germany, it is becoming clear: A dealer network can only be strong if it remains economically viable.

The dealers are the backbone of the brand. If you degrade them to mere vicarious agents, you take away Harley-Davidson's engine. Europe shows that loyalty and commitment still work - but without genuine partnership, even the best structures will break at some point.

Text & picture credits: Harleysite

The quarterly report:

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